ICC Test Championship: India, Australia, New Zealand top contenders
The ICC World Test Championship is interestingly poised with Australia, India and New Zealand the top contenders for making the final in June. Below are some qualification scenarios.
India’s win in the final Test in Brisbane has boosted their chances of making the final. To cement their place in the final, India will need to win by at least a two-match margin and if they lose one, then they will need to win three games (4-0, 3-0, 3-1 or 2-0) in their upcoming four-match home series against England, whereas a 0-3 or 0-4 loss against England will wipe away their chances of making the final regardless of other results.
The equation for New Zealand is simple; as they may not have more engagements (their home series against Bangladesh is not confirmed). New Zealand will remain on 70.0%, having claimed 420 points from a possible 600. Therefore, they need no more than one other team to finish with more than 70.0% of points earned.
For instance, a combination of England winning all their remaining 5 matches and South Africa winning by a 3-0 or 2-0 margin against Australia would end New Zealand’s chances of making the final.
Australia have slipped to third place with 69.1% points after their loss in the final Test against India in Brisbane. To secure a place in the final, Australia will have to win at least two of the yet to be confirmed 3-match series against South Africa and avoid any losses. On the other hand, a home series win by South Africa will end Australia’s chances of making the final. Any other results require a favourable combination of series results not featuring Australia.
England have an outside chance to reach the final. Their best chance is to beat Sri Lanka in the remaining Test in Galle and win the four-match series against India by a 3-0 or 4-0 margin. Any other results require a favourable combination of series results not featuring England.
South Africa may also still be in with a mathematical chance, though it requires them to sweep both their upcoming series, that is, away series against Pakistan and home series against Australia as well as England’s results in Sri Lanka and India going in favour of Quinton de Kock’s side.
The remaining teams – Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the West Indies and Bangladesh – will not be able to reach the final even if they win all their remaining fixtures.